Wednesday, October 25, 2006

 

Another class..

Another dead end. As a faculty member here at the college, I have the contractually supported right to attend all the continuing education courses I can get my greedy little paws on. I certainly enjoy the classes, although it reminds me that I am beyond glad to be done with school. Even walking down the halls as a student depresses me. I guess that second Master's or Doctorate will need to wait, possibly forever.

The class I took last night was an import/export class. I've broached the topic before, and every time I investigate the matter, it gets more an more complicated. For my purposes, my business plan (such as it is...) would be as follows: investigate via Yahoo! and Google and Ebay what people are searching for. When I find a product with the right price that involves a place where I would go anyway, I fly over and buy X amount of the product and bring it home. I would then sell it on any of the above sites and pocket the profits. Even this involves more work than I'm willing to put forth right now, but the tax benefits of such a venture are huge. I'll know more over the winter, as my health seems to be restored. I actually need to incorporate my little company and go from there.

All of this studying has had a positive effect. I've been winnowing down the options to both make more money and reduce my tax burden. Moreover, the class didn't cost me anything more than time and the promise I would submit the reviews of the class today. This does not imply a zero-sum game; all knowledge is useful and therefore an end unto itself.

In my further pursiut of investment knowledge, I've been studying the vagaries of real estate via books on CD. Right now I'm listening to Dolf De Roos discuss the benefits of real estate investments versus other forms of investment. He speaks in generalities, so I'll need to make a duplicate and run the tape past Scott and Steve and Betsy. I know that I'll need to invest in real estate on some level, if only in the form of buying my own place and possibly renting out a room. I have other possiblities as well when Karl and I pool our resources and brain power. (cue evil laugh and ominous rubbing together of hands...) BWAAA hahahahahahahahah... *giggle* So, if this is the right thing to do, why haven't I done it? The answer is timing and risk.


Much of the real estate in Westchester has exploded in price, but even that description doesn't quite cover the insane housing prices. For example, let's examine the town of Croton. A small village with a thriving downtown, it boasts excellent schools and is very livable. Back in the mid 90's you couls have purchased a starter home for around 160K. That same home peaked 1 year ago at around 500K, depending on size and location. Prices have dropped somewhat, (say, mid 400k) but most people made out like bandits. Those who purchased in the early 70's, when Croton was a blue-collar town, made a (tax free) fortune. The explosion was the combination of the aforementioned schools and business districtn, and the final icing on the cake: the train station. Everyday, communters zoom into Grand Central Station on the express train and reverse the trip at night. It also helps that the station has ample parking in a safe area. The train caused prices to explode, while small towns next door, such as Verplank and Yorktown went much more slowly. Yorktown caught up, though.

Both towns are out of my price range unless I purchased a co-op, which doen't help my overall plans. Let's use another example in my price range. Chelsea Cove is a subdivision of nice townhouses in a southern Dutchess County. This development has two floor plans: 1300 and 1900 square feet. The larger of the two is 3 stories with a walk-out basement. All units have access to a club house, tennis courts, and a private beach on a lake. The beach means no pool, BTW. Obviously, these homes are quite nice, although at 24 years old they might be showing their age a bit. The main drawback is the location. Chelsea Cove is 4o miles from work and 50 miles from White Plains, with the twisty and hilly Putman section of the Taconic in between. I'm also discounting the constrution on the Taconic in Northern Westchester, as it will eventually abate.

Back in '98, you could have purchased one of these homes for 90 - 120K. At the peak, these sold for 275K, and investors snapped them up as soon as they went on the market. These same investors are now fleeing the scene of the crime, as the asking price is now 225K. Scott mentioned I should low-ball sellers, and with nearly 25% of the units for sale, I would probably get a unit for 200K or so. Still, this very fact made me nervous, but I couldn't verbalize my fears. I questioned Scott further, and came up with this: prices will continue to drop for the next 5 years or so (the average cycle is 6 or 7 years up and then down for the same period, and downward cycle began about 1 year ago). If I succesfully low-ball a seller, then I won't lose the difference between my equity and my purchase price. After the downturn expires and prices move higher, I'll gain equity. However, the prices won't rise to the level they are today for 10 years. This pure conjecture, I know, but serves as a useful starting point.

Much of the increase in prices can be traced to the rock-bottom interest rates present during the past 6 years or so. These rates made housing more affordable, even as prices rose. When America was suffering under stagflation in '82, a house that cost 200K had the same monthly payment as a house in 2000 that cost 330K. Keep in mind while these are same figures, they are NOT adjusted for inflation. 1500 per month in '82 was a much larger chunk of change than in 2000. As such, houses were cheaper at 330,000 then they were at 200,000. I just love the new math.

Interest rates are rising now, although they are fairly low when compared to historic rates. From '79 to '82, the highest rates I found were nearly 18% (WOW) and add 3 or 4 points to the prime for your mortgage rate. 90-91 wasn't much better, with rates also in the double digits. Both periods resulted in a near collapse of the real estate market, with some people loosing their homes and others making a small fortune. Cash was king back then, and it will be again soon.

This leads to the undertow dragging the market to the depths: adjustable rate mortgages (ARM's). Recent lending terms have been flexible (to say the least) and even people whose credit is bruised like overripe fruit could get financing. The terms wouldn't be as favorable as someone with perfect credit, so to lower the interest rate, they would only hold a rate for 5 to 7 years. This would lower the payments to something the buyer(s) could afford. Such financing is also available to those with great credit but may not make enough money to afford a fixed rate. Believe me, some took the chance. As a result, people not only bought a home over their income level, they also found that payements are about to explode, and they can't sell the house for much more than the loan amount. One of the things I learned on my gonzo trip to Miami was that these loans are almost all interest and little principle compared to a fixed-rate loan. Egro, you payments aren't paying for much. When these loans adjust from '07 to '10, people MAY begin a selling panic. This may lead to chaos, but it is also a huge opportunity. Karl and I would need to dedicate ourselves to paying down principle to build equity to snatch up properties as they become available.

Even if home values were to drop and I did lose equity (the accounting law of conservancy would state I haven't lost or made any money until I sold the house at a loss or profit. Ergo, the correct term either way is equity and not money), it is unlikely to go below the savings among the three principles. I pay $800 per month; my mom pays $550 after Section 8, and Karl pays $625 for his studio. This mean we pay $23700 per year. Note that housing prices could fall by that much per year, and actually are right now. However, since Karl and I will be renting out to my mother's Section 8 voucher, prices would need to drop $26700 per year, with the understanding that Section 8 will pay 800; it could be more. However, we are not including the tax benefit between Karl and myself. The annual federal max, which I assure you will be taken, is 25,000K. Ergo, prices must now drop $51700 per year. I'm not even including the mortgage interest rate deductions or the state tax benefits, since I don't know the rules in either case. The news is not all rosy, of course, since much of the write-offs deal with the upkeep of the house such as repairs or heating oil. I'm also not including propery taxes, although you can write off SOME of the taxes. Property taxes are a huge factor in choosing a location. Luckily, White Plains, with it's corporate base, has a low tax rate for Westchester. "For Westchester" is the operative term.

The post that began October 23rd and ended on Novemeber 8th is summed up as follows: it is time to buy a home for the 3 of us. All the research I do is repeating itself, and that is an excellent sign. It means I'm getting a handle on the subject and can start the planning process to move forward. The tax benefits and my mom's Section 8 voucher make the choice an easy one. This does not mean Karl and I are suddenly ready to become the new Trumps. This home is only for the 3 of us. More homes and/or tenants will need to come later. My mom and Karl will not be out of their leases for another 8 months or so. We'll need to use this time to house hunt with my contacts in the industry and get a mortgage with the best terms. We'll aslo need to pay down our debts and get rid of our credit cards and eliminate those blemishes on our credit records such as an unpaid hospital bill, etc. We also need to learn the ins and outs of home repair, and Home Depot will prove invaluble in this endeavor. If we manage this properly, more homes, responsiblity, and money will be our aims. Watch out world, Karl and Brian are coming to kick some ass.

Monday, October 23, 2006

 

Book review

I love travel books. That’s hardly surprising, as my love for travel is well documented on this blog. Still, my love for travel books is not just limited to guides stating you should look at museum A and statue B and eat at restaurant C. These are fine and make up the bulk of travel books. What fascinates me is what they don’t cover. Most travel books include most of the major attractions and eateries, and they usually include tips on paying for taxis, tipping, avoiding crowds, best times to visit, and hopefully a phrasebook with useful statements such as the local word for police, etc. Standard tomes for standard travelers, these books are aiming for the well-heeled tourist who may be rich in money but not time.

Other guidebooks, while offering some of the same info above, try to claim the hip portion of the market, with names like Rough Guides, Moon Guides, and of course the granddaddy of them all: Lonely Planet. By hip I mean broke, and these books are primarily for backpackers. The opposite of the above tourists, these primarily young and aimless meanderers have plenty of time but not money. These guide books (and please remember Rolf Potts admonition that travel of any type of travel is still a commercial undertaking) cover activities more than sights. A rich German tourist in his or 40’s may visit the Buddha statues in Thailand and lounge on Phuket’s beach, but a Lonely Planet trooper will visit Khao San Road, smoke weed, and hit the full moon parties on Phuket. Ironically, the readers of these books turn up their nose at the very books that guide them.

Other books don’t tell you where to travel, but how. “Vagabonding” by Rolf Potts is an oft-cited example here on this site, but others exist as well. The Worlds Cheapest Travel Destinations gives info on being a skinflint all over the globe. Tim Leffel, the author of the above book, also wrote a similar book about traveling cheaply: “Making Your Travel Dollars Worth a Fortune.” An excellent source of info on a variety of topics, it covers similar ground as Vagabonding. All 3 books mentioned here are highly recommended, but not the focus of this review.

All of these books fulfill their roles nicely, but all the mainstream books generally ignore a subset of travelers: men, or, more specifically, horny men with money to spend and a dim view of relationships from both a practical and philosophical perspective. Although many have heard of such excursions for wine, women, and song; few have participated, and fewer will admit it. I freely express my curiosity at such trips, although the logistics of such jaunts have always escaped me. Even while in Canada I couldn’t catch a break, but I’ll tell that story later. It is said that if a need exists, the free market will fill it. Well, they were right. Consider the gap closed with the book “The Hedonist.”

I cannot recall a book as brutally honest and as funny a book about the otherwise taboo topic of prostitution. Still, if the book was simply about where to go around the world to pay chicks to honk your horn, you could dismiss it as either base or disgusting or whatever. The magic of the book is the approach it has to the role its play in the world. As a wealthy male from America, you are literally the king of the rest of the world. Moreover, this is a really good thing for you to be and you should take every opportunity to indulge yourself. The book begins by giving the reader an exercise plan to change you from a one-shot-and-your–lame-ass-is-out-for-the-night-loser to full blown stud capable of having sex all night long. Your trips should be a marathon, not a sprint, says the book. I agree actually, although by the book’s estimation I’m a sap for hoping to trade my financial security and peace of mind to have sex with one woman for the rest of my life. Evidently they consider this an uneven trade. Who says romance is dead?

The next chapter covers the generalities of hiring women for sex. Again, one could be outraged at the topic of conversation, but the book is so unapologetically hilarious, you can’t put the book down. Essentially, most of the women you’ll “meet” are either con artists or seasoned pros. You don’t want to hire either type, as one will rob you and the other will ruin your fantasy and charge you more while rushing you to… um, finish. Keep in mind that in certain nations, all the ladies are sacrificing their stature in the community to do this work, so all will do less if possible and rob if you if you’re a complete idiot. Obviously, the hardened pro is better than the con artist, but you should be looking for someone relatively new to the business that will a good job of filling your dreams while you pay her fairly for a nice night. If everything works out, you can hire for next night at a cheaper, i.e. direct, rate. Also, the more direct and forceful you are with the ladies, the better your trip will be. Most of the areas listed are male-dominated nations, so the women are less likely to roll you if you present a strong image. Furthermore, if you are an easy mark, the women will let each other know. I can’t say I agree with this. If you knew an easy target, would you let your competitors know? Much of the knowledge in this chapter would have been developed via trial and error, but by giving you the reality of the business, you save time and money.

With your newfound studliness at the ready, you then use the book to decide where you wish to go. Prostitution is legal (or very close to legal) in many parts of the world, and the book goes over some, but not all, of the red light districts available. At this point the book contradicts itself. It gave the criteria for inclusion based on a number of factors, one of which is climate. However, the first two listed were Frankfurt, Germany and Amsterdam, Holland. Aren’t these cities really cold most of the time? Hold on, I’ll answer for you: YES!!! Moreover, if Frankfurt made the cut, why not include Prague or Montreal or any other major Canadian city? All are cold; all have well established red light districts, and prostitution is legal in both nations. Contradictions aside, this information was useful to me, as I didn’t know Frankfurt had a red light district. I mapped it on Google Earth and made a mental note. “No dad, I can fly into Frankfurt and take the train. It’s no problem, I swear.” Seriously, all German cities have a red light district, but now I have street names, train routes, and GPS coordinates. Amsterdam’s inclusion was no surprise, however. Selling sex is as Dutch as wooden shoes and windmills. I was surprised at the price. The Euro is killing my sex life and I didn’t even know it.

As I read the book, the locales began getting warmer. Curacao was a surprising choice until I read the island is a part of the Netherlands, i.e. a Dutch protectorate. Evidently prostitution is not only legal, but the main brothel is state owned. Award a point to socialism, please. The book then goes into how to negotiate price and service. Again the attitude of the book kicks into high gear. The reader is admonished not these women walk over you and gives hints for negotiations. Each area is covered with specific tips for each area. Brazilian women love fake gold while Colombian women are actually looking for a relationship, etc.

There were some unusual omissions in the book. India and Cambodia were left off the list, and both nations have red light districts worthy of visitation. Australia was another omission that should have merited inclusion. It’s certainly warm, and brothels are legal.
Nevada didn’t make the cut, and the Chicken Ranch is world famous. Actually, prostitution is legal in almost all of Europe and many countries are warmer than Germany or Holland.

The book closes with a repeat of its philosophy: when lying on your death bed, remember and smile at the fact you lived a life most other men would envy. This approach ignores the principle of both Heaven and Hell and reincarnation, but it is consistent with the overall tone of the book. It comes highly recommended, even if you never intend on using the information. The humor value alone makes it worthwhile

As for the omissions? Maybe I need to do some research for my own guide. More later.

Wednesday, October 18, 2006

 

The art of being cheap...

The art of being cheap and getting away with it is a difficult thing to master. I’m here in Border’s White Plains store, and I just polished off 3 Lindor chocolate balls and a bowl of soup. My Snapple remains unfinished. Theoretically, one could call this a waste of money. (The cost was 5 bucks but does not include parking.) On the surface it is, but I have not mentioned that I’m meeting Betsy for dinner, and while I don’t expect to pay for the whole meal, I’m certainly paying for myself. As such, I can fill up for 7 dollars and hold my appetite until I get home. I’ll still buy something at the diner, but just a nosh (as the Jews in Brooklyn would say,) and not a dinner. It’s a useful way to save on a date when your not sure it’s going anywhere without looking bad, but I should mention that’s not why I’m doing it tonight. I was afraid she’d choose an expensive place, although she did not. Ladies, guys do this before dates more often than chicks might think.

I’ve also tried to trim some of my recurring expenses by canceling all the games (that I don’t use and have erased,) on my Sprint account at a savings of around 13 bucks a month, cancelled the video mail for another 5 bucks, and eliminated my monthly donation to my Roth IRA. The Roth was only 100 dollars a month, but I’m better off paying down debt before donating 1200 bucks a year to a savings plan for a house when I plan on buying within 18 months anyway. All of this frugality is fine in and of itself, but begs the question: “Dear God, Brian, what the Hell did you get into this time?” It’s a worthy question.

The answer is technology, or more specifically, that technology begets technology. I’m here on my trusty laptop, and I’m online. I can do this at Border’s because my computer has an integrated wi-fi card and antenna which uses the T-Mobile Internet service. Theoretically, I could also access the ‘Net the same way at my apartment, assuming I could find a signal.  Generally, I cannot. Even when I can, I’m technically breaking the law as the violation “theft of services”. I could access the Web with my phone line, but the line has never worked properly since I moved into the apartment and doesn’t even work on this computer. The old Pentium 2 would work, but only at 26Kbps. This has never really been a problem (mostly because I don’t mind piggybacking on someone’s signal), but my father and Alex were in town for 2 weeks and the kid LOVES to hop online. I understand, as I would have been the same way at 14 if the ‘Net was around back then. I can only imagine how large my porn collection would be if that was the case.

Moreover, Alex does not like to just surf; he plays World of Warcraft (WoW). The bandwidth needed to play is rather large, and needs a stable signal. I started to play as well, and I enjoy the game. Now I suddenly needed a connection to the Internet from my home. I couldn’t use my home phone, and I couldn’t use the wi-fi either. As such, I finally broke down and bought the Sprint wireless Web card. The device is essentially a stripped down cell phone, complete with a phone number, which “calls” the Internet service, and you then access the Web. The speed is variable; I can get essentially DSL speeds at home or all over Southern Westchester. In other areas I get double a 56K modem. The price is high: 60 dollars a month. I also signed up for WoW’s monthly service at $15 per. Thus, some expenses needed culling. Keep in mind I won’t be saving any money for a few months anyway; the card was $109 and the game was 20 and 40 (my mistake…) so any savings will have to wait.

I was tempted to eliminate one bill, but couldn’t pull the plug. My land phone line has been useless since I paid $250 to have it installed, and I almost never use it. More rational people would have gotten rid of it in short order, but I cannot fathom not having a regular telephone line. The line is even more useless than I’m letting on. I also cannot receive incoming calls, as the line signal is so weak it is unable to trigger the ringer on my phone. I actually don’t mind this, as people or organizations, etc. that only have my home number are people I don’t want to talk to anyway. They can’t say I’m avoiding them; the number is legit, just unusable. There’s security as well. Cell service can be knocked out, but land lines seem to be made of sterner stuff. This way I have an outlet to contact emergency services, etc.

There is a flip side to all this techno-buying: I no longer need to go to Starbucks or Border’s to use the ‘Net, and that should save me money in the long run. I’m realizing, though, that I don’t really go to these places to surf the ‘Net. There’s a social aspect as well. This is especially true in Yorktown, as I get to enjoy the company of beautiful women who wouldn’t date me if I were the last man on Earth. They are cute to look at, and I can talk about college and financial aid, so I least get to practice talking to hot chicks. Oh well… I also need to get out of the house, and some days I do not want to go home. Again, I really need to develop self-discipline more than I need new technology. Don’t even get me started on the RAM upgrade.

There is some good news on the horizon from an unexpected source: I have a new job at the college. No, I have not been transferred or promoted (or demoted). I was asked to drive a group of students to SUNY Albany, as I was listed as a potential driver of the college van. I did try to sign up as a driver when I first started, but we’ll say the reaction to my driving record was something between abject horror and hysterical laughter. Obviously, I didn’t make it. When I was asked recently, I figured there was little to lose. My driving record is clean, so I’ll take the safety course (it’s a BIG van) and a test drive. Assuming I pass, I will then be able to drive clubs and teams to and fro. Furthermore, I do get paid for this. Thus begins a cottage industry of sorts, and I can use my otherwise non-descript vacation days to make extra cash. Word has spread; I was called by Jewish Club today with the request that I drive them to Philly for a weekend in November. If I get 15 per hour for the whole weekend, I’ll earn 720. I’m expecting more along the lines of $500 for the weekend and $100 or so for the trip to Albany. I’m actually not sure what the pay rate is, but who cares. As things progress, I’ll be recording them here on my blog whether people read this site or not.

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