Friday, March 21, 2014
Spoiled for choice or...
Which way do we go?
As a thought experiment, and also to keep me away from WoW during Lent, I've taken all the various possibilities I've been obsessing over and tried to catalog them in individual data points. It's a flow chart in paragraph form essentially, with the following criteria used: 1) Am I trying to stay in the USA, or am I concentrating on expatriating? If I'm staying in America, where? If I'm looking to leave, what's the timeline? 2) How stable is the job? In other words, will I last until retirement (12 years minimum)? 3) Am I single? Will I have children? 4) To what extent will the economy suffer? It's assumed that we will have some sort of slowdown, but when it will happen and where it will happen are the x-factors. 5) What the governmental response be?
Flowing from one topic to the other, I mean the response to the inevitable financial crunch more than a societal breakdown. I will say the State response to the latter will not be pretty. Still, even that's a little too broad, so let's narrow that to what will happen to Social Security and pension plans. There's chatter in the libertarian community that confiscation and reduction are inevitable. You would get something, but no where near what you should have gotten. Let's estimate 30 cents on the dollar as a worst case scenario.
Each hypothetical will have a specific course of action or actions associated with it, along with my prediction for each, including whether or not I'd live here in Westchester (at least until retirement) or elsewhere. If I'm leaving, where would I go?. Some actions are universal: getting out of the apartment, for example, along with eliminating debt, losing more weight, finishing dental work, etc. With these variables [Ed. note, I reserve the right to add more as they come up], let's begin.
A) Concentrate on staying in the USA, and the job will be stable; I'm married with a young family; the economy will crash, but not so severely as to trigger a depression, and while SS benefits will be further curtailed, it will pay something close to what I expected, and pensions and retirement accounts will not be confiscated en mass. Likelihood: moderate. This does not mean the changes financially or societally will be smooth, only that my situation will not be so bad as to make leaving a better option. Obviously I'd be staying in Westchester, though in a new home. The primary course of action in this case is fixing my pension plan, and if that's not possible, maxing out Roth and traditional IRAs. Also, I wouldn't live in Westchester after I retired, so I'd need to look into buying a place in Florida now, as the prices are going through the roof. Certainly this is the most conventional scenario, and it's all probably true in the short term, but when the debt crisis finally begins things will really fall apart, and who knows what will happen next.
B) Still staying in the USA, but the job is not stable. I'm married and/or have kids. The economy will have a controlled crash in the same manner as above, and SS benefits and retirement accounts are otherwise are generally safe. Likelihood: moderate. Using the same order of operations isn't as easy in this scenario, because the assumed marriage and children affect where I'd live in the event of the job disappearing. Why I'd be unemployed is less relevant than when. In this example, I could have been offered an early retirement plan and just coasting until 55. Now we're starting to see a darker future, and we're getting into the long term reality rather than the short term debt-driven status quo. The linchpin, beyond my family status, is that economy doesn't completely collapse. I'd probably leave Westchester for a cheaper area unless the family couldn't move. If financial aid jobs were available elsewhere, I'd pursue that. Regardless, the best course of action would be to start my own online business, a topic often covered here.
C) Still staying in the USA; the job is stable, but the economy and pension plans are in ashes. Family status could go either way. Probability: fair to moderate. As counter intuitive as keeping the job but losing the economy seems, there is precedence. For one, all the prior downturns in the economy haven't affected the college, though we as a nation are in historically bad shape. Also, Community Colleges are the apex of a counter cyclical business, so we could ride out the storm, helping people go back to college to upgrade their skills. (I can't even type that without smirking. Dear Lord I am full of shit.) The job would undergo serious convulsions; I predict my pay, benefits, and the like would be reduced, but I wouldn't be laid off or have my pay cut to the point it wouldn't be worth working at the school. The course of action would be different than example A, as pensions and IRA's, etc. would be seized, so fixing either one wouldn't be a priority.
The dollar would disintegrate in this scenario, so the best course of action is to buy hard assets and supplies now, as well as have cash on hand in the event of banking holidays. Getting out of debt, assumed as important unless expressly mentioned otherwise, becomes a top priority now. The supplies would be anything from stored food, water, gas, and toothpaste to clothing to powdered Tide to solar equipment to CB's for myself and my brother, along with Scott, and maybe a few others. The hard assets would be silver bars, a gun, ammo, etc. Also, some emergency training like volunteering as a paramedic, etc. would be useful in helping others. If I believed things would get really crazy (and they might in this instance), I could look into buying a cabin in Upstate New York or the Poconos. More on this in a moment. Finally, this is one of the situations where getting out of the apartment is not automatic. While I hate my apartment overall, it is cheap living. Summarizing, my family status would determine where I'm living when all this happened, so I'd work from there.
D) Still staying in the USA, but the job, economy, and pension plans are all toast. Family status could go either way. Probability: very low, for reasons discussed below. This is the most dire of the situations, and almost everything would need to go wrong for this to take place. I've given this the lowest probability, primarily because I'd do everything in my power to leave the USA if all of these happened, unless I had some compelling reason to stay, like my wife or kids were sick, or something equally dire. Absent that, I'm in America because I didn't plan well enough to leave or got caught in some police action. This is another scenario where getting out of the apartment isn't automatic. If I have a wife and kids, it would have happened prior to the collapse, but if all of the above happened and I'm still in my studio, I'd just walk away.
Beyond the Mancave, the best course in this case is a more extreme version of the response to C. This would be a permanent change in my quality of life, and would require a long term solution. Effectively, I would need a homestead as opposed to simply a retreat, like my long-desired writer's cabin in the woods. I would need to get all the supplies listed above, as well as water purification, cached gas, medications, etc. I'd need to learn to garden, and even perhaps raise small animals like chickens. EMT training would also be helpful, again for self-preservation, but also to be of service.
None of this would be in Westchester, of course. Upstate New York is the most likely location for this, as the Poconos have been carved up like a Christmas goose. Getting the minimum 3 acres (and the proper land-use rules) needed for such a venture is much easier and cheaper in NY. Also, the Empire State has much better soil for agriculture. If reading this plan tells you I'm suffering from cognitive dissonance, it means you're paying attention. The plan requires preparation and money in large amounts, and I said I'd do anything in my power to avoid this scenario in the first place. So if the odd of this happening are already remote, because I'd rather rot in Belize with no money than have America implode taking me with her, doing what would be needed to put this together is even less likely.
This should cover all the relevant possibilities that include me staying in America, though I don't believe I hit all the possible combinations. Next up: getting outta Dodge. I'm probably going to enjoy these much more.
E) Leaving the USA, but the job is stable; pensions and SS are relatively safe; the economy doesn't irreparably crash and I'm in the family way. Probability: High to moderate. Another seemingly contradictory state of affairs that really isn't. So how would this work? The short version is that I'd retire overseas to Belize, Panama, or even Malaysia. I'd teach English, or something similar, as a working hobby, and I'd raise my family in this new environment. This is more of a societal response than an economic one, as Florida would offer similar costs to the countries listed above. The most critical courses of action are fixing my pension, choosing a country and planning my visas, and selling this to the wife and kids. You can guess which would be the hardest one to accomplish.The planning for this has actually begun already. An FBI background check is in process, and I have all the relevant information to get a "Friendly Nation" visa from Panama, though not the money.
F) Leaving the USA, job, pensions, SS, and the economy are all stable, but I'm single, no kids. Probability: moderate. This is certainly not the happy ending E would be, as the thought of being alone at 55 or older is really depressing. Still, there's more flexibility because I'm flying solo, so I could travel more. Otherwise, the best courses of action are the same as E, with more emphasis on relocating further afield. This is a polite way off saying I'd troll for a young wife.
G) Leaving the USA, but the job is not stable. Pensions, SS, and the economy survive. I'm married and/or with kids. Probability: moderate to high. This gets a bit harder. The best ending I could hope for is some sort of early retirement or severance package. The courses of action are fix my pension, then open a business of some sort, and/or try to find work as an ESL teacher before my job disappeared. This is critical to prepare for the transition. The countries in question depend on the circumstances of my job loss. If I got the early retirement or severance, then I could have a similar approach to E, but with a side helping of teaching. From a purely financial perspective, this would mean Japan, S. Korea, Indonesia (Bali!? Nope, Jakarta; sorry.), or the Middle East, which would offer the most money by far.
Failing that, the business would have cover me if I didn't get severance and ESL didn't work out. I'd want to try ESL first , business second. The tricky part is that there's little overlap between places where ESL pays decently and where cheap living and entrepreneurship are both viable. Chiang Mai in Thailand, Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia, Saigon in Vietnam, and Jakarta in Indonesia are the best of a crappy lot. Tabuk, Saudi Arabia would be a dark horse, as I could decamp to Aqaba every weekend. Some of the planning for this is done. I have the ESL certification in hand (literally; I'm staring at right now), and the FBI background report is in progress.
Quick note for brevity's sake: For E, F, and G, ESL is mentioned, even required, as part of the solution. This is irrespective of the fact that teaching is something I desperately want to do. If I'm serious about this as a long term plan, then I need to bite the bullet and volunteer at Mercy. I guess I'll call.
H) Leaving the USA, and everything else is gone, and I'm single. Yikes. Probability: low, I hope. This isn't quite as dire as D, as I wouldn't be caught in the collapse, but other countries wouldn't be immune if America falls to this extent. The pertinent actions in this case are a little different than the others. It's hard to plan for a collapse like this while working to move abroad, but I'll try. First, starting in May of this year, I'd want to take sailing lessons. Huh? What does that have to do with anything? For one, the country must be very carefully chosen. I could be limited to a few hundred dollars a month for living expenses, so cost of living is paramount. The cheapest way to do this is to live on a boat. Odd, and a little overly romantic, I know. Second, store currency and silver (gold being out of my price range) overseas in a safety deposit box. Third, start exploring countries now, with Chile, Belize, Panama and Thailand at the top of the list. Owning land, tricky as a foreigner, may be part of the solution. If it were, Thailand would be out.
I) Same as H, but with a wife and/or kids. Dear Lord. Probability: low. this is better than H, as I wouldn't be alone, but would require more work. The best approach would be a combo of H and D. Planning for the family removes the boat unless it's huge, but that would eliminate the cost savings. Other than that, I'd need some method of providing for my family, so setting up a homestead would be desirable, but highly impractical at best. Panama and Belize are the two best locations for this, to the extent it's even possible. I'd need really strong ties to the community in this case, so traveling to these places and making friends and being of service are vital.
These last two would be the end of the world (as we've known it), and I don't feel fine. Really, it's hard to prepare for The Greater Depression, especially while planning to move overseas. Let's hope it doesn't get this bad.
I've been working on this post for 10 days now, nipping and tucking in an attempt to add clarity and logic. What strikes me as funny is how little weight I've given to my family situation versus other concerns. This is just a thought experiment of course, and realizing my shortcomings is an important result. Also, I have no idea of the other parties involved, so how could I plan?
There are known unknowns, like whom I'd marry and whether not I'd have kids, and there are the unknown knows, like whether or not peak oil will have an impact, or if climate change will destroy agriculture, the impact technology will have, or if an asteroid will smote us into cosmic dust. I'll worry about the factors I can control, or at least observe. With that in mind, what letter do I choose? The answer, of course, is K: all of the above.
As a thought experiment, and also to keep me away from WoW during Lent, I've taken all the various possibilities I've been obsessing over and tried to catalog them in individual data points. It's a flow chart in paragraph form essentially, with the following criteria used: 1) Am I trying to stay in the USA, or am I concentrating on expatriating? If I'm staying in America, where? If I'm looking to leave, what's the timeline? 2) How stable is the job? In other words, will I last until retirement (12 years minimum)? 3) Am I single? Will I have children? 4) To what extent will the economy suffer? It's assumed that we will have some sort of slowdown, but when it will happen and where it will happen are the x-factors. 5) What the governmental response be?
Flowing from one topic to the other, I mean the response to the inevitable financial crunch more than a societal breakdown. I will say the State response to the latter will not be pretty. Still, even that's a little too broad, so let's narrow that to what will happen to Social Security and pension plans. There's chatter in the libertarian community that confiscation and reduction are inevitable. You would get something, but no where near what you should have gotten. Let's estimate 30 cents on the dollar as a worst case scenario.
Each hypothetical will have a specific course of action or actions associated with it, along with my prediction for each, including whether or not I'd live here in Westchester (at least until retirement) or elsewhere. If I'm leaving, where would I go?. Some actions are universal: getting out of the apartment, for example, along with eliminating debt, losing more weight, finishing dental work, etc. With these variables [Ed. note, I reserve the right to add more as they come up], let's begin.
A) Concentrate on staying in the USA, and the job will be stable; I'm married with a young family; the economy will crash, but not so severely as to trigger a depression, and while SS benefits will be further curtailed, it will pay something close to what I expected, and pensions and retirement accounts will not be confiscated en mass. Likelihood: moderate. This does not mean the changes financially or societally will be smooth, only that my situation will not be so bad as to make leaving a better option. Obviously I'd be staying in Westchester, though in a new home. The primary course of action in this case is fixing my pension plan, and if that's not possible, maxing out Roth and traditional IRAs. Also, I wouldn't live in Westchester after I retired, so I'd need to look into buying a place in Florida now, as the prices are going through the roof. Certainly this is the most conventional scenario, and it's all probably true in the short term, but when the debt crisis finally begins things will really fall apart, and who knows what will happen next.
B) Still staying in the USA, but the job is not stable. I'm married and/or have kids. The economy will have a controlled crash in the same manner as above, and SS benefits and retirement accounts are otherwise are generally safe. Likelihood: moderate. Using the same order of operations isn't as easy in this scenario, because the assumed marriage and children affect where I'd live in the event of the job disappearing. Why I'd be unemployed is less relevant than when. In this example, I could have been offered an early retirement plan and just coasting until 55. Now we're starting to see a darker future, and we're getting into the long term reality rather than the short term debt-driven status quo. The linchpin, beyond my family status, is that economy doesn't completely collapse. I'd probably leave Westchester for a cheaper area unless the family couldn't move. If financial aid jobs were available elsewhere, I'd pursue that. Regardless, the best course of action would be to start my own online business, a topic often covered here.
C) Still staying in the USA; the job is stable, but the economy and pension plans are in ashes. Family status could go either way. Probability: fair to moderate. As counter intuitive as keeping the job but losing the economy seems, there is precedence. For one, all the prior downturns in the economy haven't affected the college, though we as a nation are in historically bad shape. Also, Community Colleges are the apex of a counter cyclical business, so we could ride out the storm, helping people go back to college to upgrade their skills. (I can't even type that without smirking. Dear Lord I am full of shit.) The job would undergo serious convulsions; I predict my pay, benefits, and the like would be reduced, but I wouldn't be laid off or have my pay cut to the point it wouldn't be worth working at the school. The course of action would be different than example A, as pensions and IRA's, etc. would be seized, so fixing either one wouldn't be a priority.
The dollar would disintegrate in this scenario, so the best course of action is to buy hard assets and supplies now, as well as have cash on hand in the event of banking holidays. Getting out of debt, assumed as important unless expressly mentioned otherwise, becomes a top priority now. The supplies would be anything from stored food, water, gas, and toothpaste to clothing to powdered Tide to solar equipment to CB's for myself and my brother, along with Scott, and maybe a few others. The hard assets would be silver bars, a gun, ammo, etc. Also, some emergency training like volunteering as a paramedic, etc. would be useful in helping others. If I believed things would get really crazy (and they might in this instance), I could look into buying a cabin in Upstate New York or the Poconos. More on this in a moment. Finally, this is one of the situations where getting out of the apartment is not automatic. While I hate my apartment overall, it is cheap living. Summarizing, my family status would determine where I'm living when all this happened, so I'd work from there.
D) Still staying in the USA, but the job, economy, and pension plans are all toast. Family status could go either way. Probability: very low, for reasons discussed below. This is the most dire of the situations, and almost everything would need to go wrong for this to take place. I've given this the lowest probability, primarily because I'd do everything in my power to leave the USA if all of these happened, unless I had some compelling reason to stay, like my wife or kids were sick, or something equally dire. Absent that, I'm in America because I didn't plan well enough to leave or got caught in some police action. This is another scenario where getting out of the apartment isn't automatic. If I have a wife and kids, it would have happened prior to the collapse, but if all of the above happened and I'm still in my studio, I'd just walk away.
Beyond the Mancave, the best course in this case is a more extreme version of the response to C. This would be a permanent change in my quality of life, and would require a long term solution. Effectively, I would need a homestead as opposed to simply a retreat, like my long-desired writer's cabin in the woods. I would need to get all the supplies listed above, as well as water purification, cached gas, medications, etc. I'd need to learn to garden, and even perhaps raise small animals like chickens. EMT training would also be helpful, again for self-preservation, but also to be of service.
None of this would be in Westchester, of course. Upstate New York is the most likely location for this, as the Poconos have been carved up like a Christmas goose. Getting the minimum 3 acres (and the proper land-use rules) needed for such a venture is much easier and cheaper in NY. Also, the Empire State has much better soil for agriculture. If reading this plan tells you I'm suffering from cognitive dissonance, it means you're paying attention. The plan requires preparation and money in large amounts, and I said I'd do anything in my power to avoid this scenario in the first place. So if the odd of this happening are already remote, because I'd rather rot in Belize with no money than have America implode taking me with her, doing what would be needed to put this together is even less likely.
This should cover all the relevant possibilities that include me staying in America, though I don't believe I hit all the possible combinations. Next up: getting outta Dodge. I'm probably going to enjoy these much more.
E) Leaving the USA, but the job is stable; pensions and SS are relatively safe; the economy doesn't irreparably crash and I'm in the family way. Probability: High to moderate. Another seemingly contradictory state of affairs that really isn't. So how would this work? The short version is that I'd retire overseas to Belize, Panama, or even Malaysia. I'd teach English, or something similar, as a working hobby, and I'd raise my family in this new environment. This is more of a societal response than an economic one, as Florida would offer similar costs to the countries listed above. The most critical courses of action are fixing my pension, choosing a country and planning my visas, and selling this to the wife and kids. You can guess which would be the hardest one to accomplish.The planning for this has actually begun already. An FBI background check is in process, and I have all the relevant information to get a "Friendly Nation" visa from Panama, though not the money.
F) Leaving the USA, job, pensions, SS, and the economy are all stable, but I'm single, no kids. Probability: moderate. This is certainly not the happy ending E would be, as the thought of being alone at 55 or older is really depressing. Still, there's more flexibility because I'm flying solo, so I could travel more. Otherwise, the best courses of action are the same as E, with more emphasis on relocating further afield. This is a polite way off saying I'd troll for a young wife.
G) Leaving the USA, but the job is not stable. Pensions, SS, and the economy survive. I'm married and/or with kids. Probability: moderate to high. This gets a bit harder. The best ending I could hope for is some sort of early retirement or severance package. The courses of action are fix my pension, then open a business of some sort, and/or try to find work as an ESL teacher before my job disappeared. This is critical to prepare for the transition. The countries in question depend on the circumstances of my job loss. If I got the early retirement or severance, then I could have a similar approach to E, but with a side helping of teaching. From a purely financial perspective, this would mean Japan, S. Korea, Indonesia (Bali!? Nope, Jakarta; sorry.), or the Middle East, which would offer the most money by far.
Failing that, the business would have cover me if I didn't get severance and ESL didn't work out. I'd want to try ESL first , business second. The tricky part is that there's little overlap between places where ESL pays decently and where cheap living and entrepreneurship are both viable. Chiang Mai in Thailand, Kuala Lumpur in Malaysia, Saigon in Vietnam, and Jakarta in Indonesia are the best of a crappy lot. Tabuk, Saudi Arabia would be a dark horse, as I could decamp to Aqaba every weekend. Some of the planning for this is done. I have the ESL certification in hand (literally; I'm staring at right now), and the FBI background report is in progress.
Quick note for brevity's sake: For E, F, and G, ESL is mentioned, even required, as part of the solution. This is irrespective of the fact that teaching is something I desperately want to do. If I'm serious about this as a long term plan, then I need to bite the bullet and volunteer at Mercy. I guess I'll call.
H) Leaving the USA, and everything else is gone, and I'm single. Yikes. Probability: low, I hope. This isn't quite as dire as D, as I wouldn't be caught in the collapse, but other countries wouldn't be immune if America falls to this extent. The pertinent actions in this case are a little different than the others. It's hard to plan for a collapse like this while working to move abroad, but I'll try. First, starting in May of this year, I'd want to take sailing lessons. Huh? What does that have to do with anything? For one, the country must be very carefully chosen. I could be limited to a few hundred dollars a month for living expenses, so cost of living is paramount. The cheapest way to do this is to live on a boat. Odd, and a little overly romantic, I know. Second, store currency and silver (gold being out of my price range) overseas in a safety deposit box. Third, start exploring countries now, with Chile, Belize, Panama and Thailand at the top of the list. Owning land, tricky as a foreigner, may be part of the solution. If it were, Thailand would be out.
I) Same as H, but with a wife and/or kids. Dear Lord. Probability: low. this is better than H, as I wouldn't be alone, but would require more work. The best approach would be a combo of H and D. Planning for the family removes the boat unless it's huge, but that would eliminate the cost savings. Other than that, I'd need some method of providing for my family, so setting up a homestead would be desirable, but highly impractical at best. Panama and Belize are the two best locations for this, to the extent it's even possible. I'd need really strong ties to the community in this case, so traveling to these places and making friends and being of service are vital.
These last two would be the end of the world (as we've known it), and I don't feel fine. Really, it's hard to prepare for The Greater Depression, especially while planning to move overseas. Let's hope it doesn't get this bad.
I've been working on this post for 10 days now, nipping and tucking in an attempt to add clarity and logic. What strikes me as funny is how little weight I've given to my family situation versus other concerns. This is just a thought experiment of course, and realizing my shortcomings is an important result. Also, I have no idea of the other parties involved, so how could I plan?
There are known unknowns, like whom I'd marry and whether not I'd have kids, and there are the unknown knows, like whether or not peak oil will have an impact, or if climate change will destroy agriculture, the impact technology will have, or if an asteroid will smote us into cosmic dust. I'll worry about the factors I can control, or at least observe. With that in mind, what letter do I choose? The answer, of course, is K: all of the above.
