Wednesday, November 18, 2015
I just saw a black swan, or...
Wait, what?
As a recap, the term black swan should be explained, at least in the way that I use it here. A black swan event is one that one that is not only unprecedented, but was heretofore so improbable to the individual to the point it could not even be conceived. Since Europeans had only seen swans that were white, they used the term black swan to describe an impossibility. Then, in 1697, the Dutch explorer Willem Hesselsz de Vlamingh found, yes, you guessed it, black swans in Western Australia. In 1726, a pair was brought to Dutch-controlled Indonesia as proof of their existence. With this, Europeans were forced to see the world differently and what was once believed to be impossible is now a permanent part of reality. Of course, suddenly knowing that some swans could be black instead of white isn't that big a deal, but the phrase "as likely as a black swan" was so popular for so long, it shook Western thought to the point we use the term today, some 289 years later. Because it was such a shock to people back then, a black swan event is almost always used to describe a negative, as you'll read below.
The use in modern times is usually limited to economic occurrences, such as the housing crisis. Home prices had never gone everywhere throughout the United States at the same time, so chopping up mortgages from all areas of the USA, combining them, then selling the notes as investment bonds, would have to be a safe way to spread the risk. If home loans in Chicago were going into default, home loans in Miami would pick up the slack. History showed this was a bad idea, but since it was unthinkable prior, there was no way to know how bad this strategy would be. We all know differently now, and we can never understand the housing market the way we did before.
I use the term a little more loosely, expanding it to other life-changing events, both national and personal. 9/11 is a good example of this. Never could it have been conceived that terrorists would use airliners as massive bombs; in fact, the X-Files spin-off "The Lone Gunmen" actually used the very idea as something as impossible. i.e., a black swan. Then it happened, and we can never see planes, flying, or New York City in the same way again. I'll certainly never forget F-18's patrolling the East River that afternoon. The X-Files writers and producers were more than a little freaked out as well.
The personal events is probably where I take the idea most out of present context.When a larger, often seen phenomena, like homelessness, affects someone who couldn't conceive of this thing happening to him (and by him I mean me - twice), his (my) world view is permanently altered. Wait, he says to himself, I don't have a place to live? From now on, our hypothetical example (cough) will always know that he could be on the street. He can lessen the risk, but he cannot eliminate it. There may always be a lingering fear of it as well, but that's a psychological topic, outside of our scope. There are other examples I could use, but this post is veering into dark territory as it is.
Finally, there's a logician's facet to black swans in the form of two fallacies: the black swan fallacy (and I did see that name coming...), and retrospective determinism. The first logical mistake is to say that because something has never happened, it can't happen. It wasn't enough to know that housing prices all over the US hadn't gone down at the same time. The actions taken by bond sellers required the belief that it couldn't happen; I had never been homeless, therefore I can't be homeless, and so on. The second is building a case for the inevitability of the event after the fact. I drove to Florida with two friends, no money, and no clue. Of course I'd end up sleeping in a car! Well, not automatically, no; I could have changed one or two choices, and it never would have happened. As I mentioned above, a black swan's likelihood has to be understood as so small that someone can operate his whole life thinking it isn't possible, and generations could pass still holding on to the idea. Until it's disproved, it's fact. Once it's disproved, it can never be fact again, and you're left to redefine your understanding of the world and the consequences of your mistake. With that settled, let's look at a specific member of an wedge of ebony waterfowl gracefully breaking ranks and landing on a formerly smooth pond.
The original idea for this post was to cover the recent action taken by our County Executive, who - in a move I believe is unprecedented (there it is!) in my tenure at the college - vetoed the CSEA contract that took years to negotiate. Officially, it had too much retro pay, and too little taken out for healthcare. This was a black swan event, complete with both fallacies in effect. No one at the college could have conceived the veto, so everyone behaved in a way that reflected it's impossibility. Once it happened, I started to connect the dots in reverse, and realized why it was vetoed. It's better to say I have a theory beyond the official reasons. I was then going to chronicle what happened to me as other black swan sightings, but everything that followed flowed from the original action, not new events themselves.
True to what is written above, the college community was shocked by the veto. Our clerks are devastated, as was the faculty. My union's contract was seemingly done in early October, then we were given a counter offer that was worse than the CSEA contract. I'm thinking there was some back channel communication, and there would be no point for the administration to agree to something that would be rejected. I may be falling victim to retroactive determinism, of course, but I feel it's at least somewhat valid.
So where does that leave my union? Nowhere, in my opinion. The counter offer was before the veto, so we were angry, planning protests, planning on attending board meetings, etc. At this point, why bother? It's possible that we won't have a new contract for the next 3 plus years. Rob Astorino has been consistent in his demand that county workers pay into the health care system, and at certain percentages: 10 - 15%. Whatever the clerks would have paid in the new contract, I guess it didn't reach that benchmark.
Our union negotiations, contentious and drawn out as they have been, were always localized conflicts, with everyone shaking hands and back to work once the ink was dry. We sent our new terms to the County, and that was that. I received an email stating that we must stay the course, make our voices heard, etc. I was going to participate; now I'm not sure. I am certain whatever the County wants us to pay or get, we'd never agree to it. We're much better off agreeing to sidebars, taking care of small details, and waiting. Such is the joy of collective bargaining. If a new CSEA contract ends up getting approved, and it isn't fundamentally different than the one already proffered, then I'll take an interest in our negotiations.
So, we live in a different world, one where we are no longer an island unto ourselves, where the County, SUNY, Middle States, and everyone else trusted our judgement or at least didn't think we were worth any notice. What I found most curious was not the painful realizations everyone else had, but the liberating effect it had on me. Does that count as a black swan event itself? That's probably being a bit dramatic, but stay tuned for part 2 and decide for yourself.
As a recap, the term black swan should be explained, at least in the way that I use it here. A black swan event is one that one that is not only unprecedented, but was heretofore so improbable to the individual to the point it could not even be conceived. Since Europeans had only seen swans that were white, they used the term black swan to describe an impossibility. Then, in 1697, the Dutch explorer Willem Hesselsz de Vlamingh found, yes, you guessed it, black swans in Western Australia. In 1726, a pair was brought to Dutch-controlled Indonesia as proof of their existence. With this, Europeans were forced to see the world differently and what was once believed to be impossible is now a permanent part of reality. Of course, suddenly knowing that some swans could be black instead of white isn't that big a deal, but the phrase "as likely as a black swan" was so popular for so long, it shook Western thought to the point we use the term today, some 289 years later. Because it was such a shock to people back then, a black swan event is almost always used to describe a negative, as you'll read below.
The use in modern times is usually limited to economic occurrences, such as the housing crisis. Home prices had never gone everywhere throughout the United States at the same time, so chopping up mortgages from all areas of the USA, combining them, then selling the notes as investment bonds, would have to be a safe way to spread the risk. If home loans in Chicago were going into default, home loans in Miami would pick up the slack. History showed this was a bad idea, but since it was unthinkable prior, there was no way to know how bad this strategy would be. We all know differently now, and we can never understand the housing market the way we did before.
I use the term a little more loosely, expanding it to other life-changing events, both national and personal. 9/11 is a good example of this. Never could it have been conceived that terrorists would use airliners as massive bombs; in fact, the X-Files spin-off "The Lone Gunmen" actually used the very idea as something as impossible. i.e., a black swan. Then it happened, and we can never see planes, flying, or New York City in the same way again. I'll certainly never forget F-18's patrolling the East River that afternoon. The X-Files writers and producers were more than a little freaked out as well.
The personal events is probably where I take the idea most out of present context.When a larger, often seen phenomena, like homelessness, affects someone who couldn't conceive of this thing happening to him (and by him I mean me - twice), his (my) world view is permanently altered. Wait, he says to himself, I don't have a place to live? From now on, our hypothetical example (cough) will always know that he could be on the street. He can lessen the risk, but he cannot eliminate it. There may always be a lingering fear of it as well, but that's a psychological topic, outside of our scope. There are other examples I could use, but this post is veering into dark territory as it is.
Finally, there's a logician's facet to black swans in the form of two fallacies: the black swan fallacy (and I did see that name coming...), and retrospective determinism. The first logical mistake is to say that because something has never happened, it can't happen. It wasn't enough to know that housing prices all over the US hadn't gone down at the same time. The actions taken by bond sellers required the belief that it couldn't happen; I had never been homeless, therefore I can't be homeless, and so on. The second is building a case for the inevitability of the event after the fact. I drove to Florida with two friends, no money, and no clue. Of course I'd end up sleeping in a car! Well, not automatically, no; I could have changed one or two choices, and it never would have happened. As I mentioned above, a black swan's likelihood has to be understood as so small that someone can operate his whole life thinking it isn't possible, and generations could pass still holding on to the idea. Until it's disproved, it's fact. Once it's disproved, it can never be fact again, and you're left to redefine your understanding of the world and the consequences of your mistake. With that settled, let's look at a specific member of an wedge of ebony waterfowl gracefully breaking ranks and landing on a formerly smooth pond.
The original idea for this post was to cover the recent action taken by our County Executive, who - in a move I believe is unprecedented (there it is!) in my tenure at the college - vetoed the CSEA contract that took years to negotiate. Officially, it had too much retro pay, and too little taken out for healthcare. This was a black swan event, complete with both fallacies in effect. No one at the college could have conceived the veto, so everyone behaved in a way that reflected it's impossibility. Once it happened, I started to connect the dots in reverse, and realized why it was vetoed. It's better to say I have a theory beyond the official reasons. I was then going to chronicle what happened to me as other black swan sightings, but everything that followed flowed from the original action, not new events themselves.
True to what is written above, the college community was shocked by the veto. Our clerks are devastated, as was the faculty. My union's contract was seemingly done in early October, then we were given a counter offer that was worse than the CSEA contract. I'm thinking there was some back channel communication, and there would be no point for the administration to agree to something that would be rejected. I may be falling victim to retroactive determinism, of course, but I feel it's at least somewhat valid.
So where does that leave my union? Nowhere, in my opinion. The counter offer was before the veto, so we were angry, planning protests, planning on attending board meetings, etc. At this point, why bother? It's possible that we won't have a new contract for the next 3 plus years. Rob Astorino has been consistent in his demand that county workers pay into the health care system, and at certain percentages: 10 - 15%. Whatever the clerks would have paid in the new contract, I guess it didn't reach that benchmark.
Our union negotiations, contentious and drawn out as they have been, were always localized conflicts, with everyone shaking hands and back to work once the ink was dry. We sent our new terms to the County, and that was that. I received an email stating that we must stay the course, make our voices heard, etc. I was going to participate; now I'm not sure. I am certain whatever the County wants us to pay or get, we'd never agree to it. We're much better off agreeing to sidebars, taking care of small details, and waiting. Such is the joy of collective bargaining. If a new CSEA contract ends up getting approved, and it isn't fundamentally different than the one already proffered, then I'll take an interest in our negotiations.
So, we live in a different world, one where we are no longer an island unto ourselves, where the County, SUNY, Middle States, and everyone else trusted our judgement or at least didn't think we were worth any notice. What I found most curious was not the painful realizations everyone else had, but the liberating effect it had on me. Does that count as a black swan event itself? That's probably being a bit dramatic, but stay tuned for part 2 and decide for yourself.
